外汇分析 | Gdmfx Brokerage | 每日报告

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GDMFX汇评：非农行情暴跳如雷，步步为营才是王道

>>一、日内基本面分析

美元指数是金价最主要的“反指”，据研究，二者的负相关性达到90%以上。今年以来，伴随着美国经济的蒸蒸日上，人们早就预期今年将成为“美元之年”。然而美元直到7月才开始展露锋芒。上周五，美指突破下降趋势线压制，再上新台阶。昨日最高上冲81.573，成就自去年9月以来的十个月高点。
今年金融市场上出现了一系列奇特的景象：股市与债市齐涨，战火纷飞却难挡欧美亚股市牛气冲天。这一切可以从有恐慌指数之称的芝加哥期权交易所VIX指数触及七个月低位所反映的低波动性得到解释。低波动性会刺激投资者的过度冒险行为和自满情绪，一旦出现类似于马航坠机或者葡萄牙银行业危机这一的突发风险事件，将会导致蝴蝶效应，使全球金融市场面临新一轮危机。全球政治经济的不确定性让多头也存有一线生机。
本周公布的非农数据两大先行指标—美国初请失业人数和此前公布的ADP就业数据均表现良好，美国劳工部将于北京时间周五(8月1日)20:30公布月度非农就业报告,市场普遍预计就业岗位料连续第六个月增长20万个以上，为1997年以来最长连增纪录，美指延续上扬态势，黄金的避险买需被大幅削减；日内关注中美欧PMI、美非农报告、PCE物价等重磅数据。

>>二、外汇期货头寸报告

美元隐含净多头较上周约增加70%
欧元净空头较上周大幅增加，升至2012年9月份高点
原油净多头连续四周大幅减少

>>三、交易策略

USDJPY：近日USDJPY的涨幅较大也较为迅猛，得益于美元指数的走强加之日元超量的宽松货币政策，从日K线图来看，虽然前期的高点不断下抬但低点却似乎没有创出新低，表明100.7的长期支撑位起到了明显的作用，价格在突破101.8后摆脱了均线系统的压制，目前101.8成为后期多头的重要防线，短期支撑位在102.52，若今晚非农数据大幅利好的话，美元指数再度攀升将会促使USDJPY延续涨幅，上方压力位是104.14.操作上建议逢低做多，入场区域在102.7附近，止损102.5以下，目标103.8

XAUUSD：黄金本周的走势较为明朗，每次的高点我们判断的正确无误，昨日的跌幅为本周之最，本周前3个交易日短期支撑于1292，昨晚跌破1292后瞬间发力，最低1280，日K线收于200均线下方，4小时图中的均线系统也呈现出集体承压作用，原先的支撑位1292转化为重要压力位，今晚非农数据公布后，价格只要不迅速突破1292的话，都将会以空头为主，下方支撑位是1280、1272。操作上建议，非农数据未公布前可在1282做多，止损1278，目标1291，无论赢输如何，请一定在非农数据公布后出单。此次的非农数据，保守估计在24万左右，不会太好也不会太差，但这也足够提振美元指数上涨，故做空依旧为重要手段，建议大胆在1290附近尝试做空，止损1295，目标1273

XAGUSD：昨晚虽然黄金破位下跌，但白银跌幅较小，止步上周的低点20.30附近，4小时图中虽然未创出新低，但短期的下降趋势仍较为明显，短期均线压制位在20.65，日K线收阴并实体站稳MA52，下方支撑位于20.16，昨日的月线收线为小阴，于前月的阳线形成类似于乌云盖顶的图形，但也不能说明一定会跌，除非本月开始拉开跌幅，那么白银的下方空间将会很大。故中长期方向上，白银依旧偏弱，短期方向目前也偏弱，故操作上建议激进者可在20.70做空，止损20.96，目标20.15

每日操作简引
品   种                方  向       入场区域         支撑位            压力位
EURUSD              空          1.3410          1.3330          1.3450
GBPUSD              空          1.6910          1.6800          1.6950
AUDUSD              空          0.9320          0.9220          0.9360
USDJPY               多          102.50          103.50          102.30
XAUUSD              空          1292.0          1272.0          1298.0
XAGUSD              空          20.70             20.15           21.00
Crude-Oil              空          98.5               96.00           100.00

>>四、日内消息提醒

日期                     时间            事件                                             重要性  前值       市场预测
2014-08-01       20:30    美国6月个人收入月率                           中    0.40%        0.4%
2014-08-01       20:30    美国6月个人消费支出月率                   中    0.20%        0.2%
2014-08-01       20:30    美国7月失业率                                       高    6.10%        6.1%
2014-08-01       20:30    美国7月非农就业人数变化                   高    28.8万       23.0万
2014-08-01       22:00    美国7月ISM制造业指数                        高    55.3           56.0

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: FED SEES ‘GRADUAL INCREASES’, US DOLLAR RESPONDS POSITIVELY

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair traded above 1.2400 for most of yesterday’s trading session but the US Dollar showed some signs of strength at the time of the FOMC release. The Fed kept the rate unchanged but mentioned that gradual increases will be performed as the economy requests it.




Technical Outlook

The bias remains bullish as long as price is above the 50 period but it is now clear that the upside momentum is fading. This means that we will probably see a drop through the 50 EMA and closer to the support around 1.2300 – 1.2280. A bounce at the current support (1.2400) would invalidate such a scenario and will make 1.2540 the next destination.

Fundamental Outlook

Action slows down a bit today and the US Manufacturing PMI will be the only notable release. Scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT, this survey shows the opinions of purchasing managers about economic and business conditions in the Manufacturing sector. It acts as an indicator of optimism that has a medium impact on the currency; higher numbers than the forecast 58.7 are beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

Price action was choppy throughout yesterday’s trading session but with a bullish bias and the pair broke the bearish trend line, moving into the target at 1.4200 before dropping lower.




Technical Outlook

The move lower generated by the FOMC Statement is likely to extend into the support at 1.4100 and possibly into the 50 period EMA. However, we don’t expect a break of these two barriers unless surprises occur. The overall trend is clearly bullish, so we favor the long side after a bounce at one of the mentioned support barriers.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the US Dollar, the Pound will be affected today by manufacturing data in the form of the Purchasing Managers’ Index. The survey is scheduled for release at 9:30 am GMT and the expected reading is 56.5; the impact is medium-to-low and higher numbers strengthen the currency.

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FOREX NEWS: BUYERS STEP BACK IN, AHEAD OF KEY EUROZONE INFLATION DATA AND FED INTEREST RATE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the bulls came back into the market, taking the pair above 1.2400 after a bounce at the 50 EMA. The US Consumer Confidence survey came out above expectations but the US Dollar remained mostly unaffected.



Technical Outlook

The pair has already bounced twice at the 50 period EMA and broke 1.2400 to the upside. These are clear bullish signs that suggest we will see higher prices in the near future. The first notable zone of interest is located around the previous top at 1.2540 but it’s also likely to see ranging price movement until later in the afternoon when the FOMC Statement is released.

Fundamental Outlook

We have an important day ahead for both the Euro and the US Dollar: at 10:00 am GMT the European Flash Estimate Consumer Price Index comes out, showing the state of inflation across the Eurozone. The indicator has a strong impact on the currency, with higher numbers strengthening it; today’s forecast is a change of 1.3% compared to the previous 1.4%.

Later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT the Fed will release the FOMC Statement, which contains the outcome of the rate vote (no change expected from the current <1.50%) but also details about the reasons that determined the vote. If we will get some hints about future rate increases, the US Dollar will likely move strongly, otherwise the impact will be limited.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the bearish retracement found support at the key 1.4000 level and bounced higher for more than 100 pips. The testimony of BOE Governor Carney went mostly unnoticed.




Technical Outlook

The pair is capped by a bearish trend line seen on the chart above and at the time of writing, this line is not broken. If price returns below the line and below 1.4100, we will most likely see another touch of the 50 period EMA and possibly 1.4000. A successful break of the trend line will make 1.4200 the first target of the day but a lot will depend on the US data.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar doesn’t hold any important releases for the Pound today so the US events will be the main market driver.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: PULLBACKS REACH KEY SUPPORT. ANOTHER RALLY IN THE MAKING?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The sellers were in control for the most part of yesterday’s trading session, mostly due to technical reasons because the fundamental scene was calm and without any notable releases.




Technical Outlook

Price is currently retracing from highs and approaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. As long as it remains above the 50 EMA, the move is considered a normal pullback after an extended period of upside movement but a break of the mentioned support will possibly trigger a stronger move south. However, the uptrend is still in place as long as 1.2200 remains support.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event of the day will be the release of the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and because the German economy is one of the most important in the Eurozone, the impact of the CPI is usually high. The time of release is 1:00 pm GMT, the expected change is -0.5% (previous 0.6%) and higher values usually strengthen the Euro.

At 3:00 pm GMT the US Consumer Confidence survey will come out, showing the opinions of about 5,000 households about overall economic conditions in the United States. A higher than anticipated value suggests that consumer spending will increase in the near future and this in turn strengthens the US Dollar. The forecast is 123.2 but the impact is usually medium, not high.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar showed signs of recovery yesterday, so the session belonged mostly to the sellers, who managed to break the previous support at 1.4100.




Technical Outlook

The break of 1.4100 is an important victory for the bears but now they are facing a more important support represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A break of this barrier will take the pair into 1.4000, which is a key level, both from a technical standpoint, as well as psychological. Our outlook remains bearish for the short term but the pair is still in a clear and strong uptrend.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 3:30 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee. This speech has the potential to move the Pound strongly, so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: BALANCE TILTS TOWARDS THE SHORT SIDE AS PULLBACKS CONTINUE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the Advance version of the US Gross Domestic Product showed a very disappointing figure of just 2.6%, compared to the expected 3.0% but the previous value was revised better. All this generated a mixed trading session, with choppy movement.
  


Technical Outlook

Bullish momentum shows signs of slowing down but the pair is facing support at 1.2400. This level will probably generate a bounce higher but we don’t expect to see a move above last week’s high located at 1.2540. On the other hand, a break of 1.2400 will send the pair into the 50 EMA but the oscillators lack momentum and the fundamental scene will be mostly quiet today, which are factors that may contribute to a low volatility session.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks any notable economic data releases for both currencies, so we expect slow or possibly ranging price action.

GBP/USD

Price made another attempt to climb into 1.4300 resistance but returned lower later during Friday’s trading session. This may mark the beginning of a ranging period.



Technical Outlook

After the huge climb started at 1.3450, the pair is finally showing signs of slowing down as seen by Friday’s failed attempt to move into 1.4300 and the consequent drop below 1.4200. Today we will most likely see a drop into 1.4100 and possibly into the 50 EMA but the overall outlook is clearly bullish so the current move should be treated as a retracement, not a reversal.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the other two currencies, the Pound will not be affected by economic data today, so the technical aspect will decide the pair’s behavior.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: BREXIT IN THE LIMELIGHT ONCE AGAIN. POUND AND EURO POST MASSIVE GAINS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the US Dollar remained under heavy selling pressure for the entire trading session and the pair made huge advances, reaching the resistance zone around 1.2400.



Technical Outlook

Part of yesterday’s move was triggered by new hints that the United Kingdom – European Union divorce will be smooth, so both the Euro and the Pound strengthened against the US Dollar. The pair is now sitting at a big round number (1.2400) which acts as resistance and this calls for a retracement. Some of yesterday’s buyers are likely to close out their positions due to profit taking and this normally generates a move lower. The overall bias is clearly bullish so after the pullback, we expect higher prices.

Fundamental Outlook

All eyes will be on the Euro today for the ECB Interest Rate announcement scheduled at 12:45 pm GMT and followed shortly after by Mario Draghi’s press conference (1:30 pm GMT). The rate is not expected to change (currently 0.00%) but if the ECB President will hint towards changes to the QE program, then the Euro is likely to show strong volatility.


GBP/USD

Positive British jobs data combined with hopes of a smooth Brexit were the main ingredients for yesterday’s huge rally that took the price above 1.4200. The pair is now prone to a move lower.



Technical Outlook

The pair is massively overextended and once the bullish momentum dims down we expect to see a pullback based on profit taking. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are both above their respective overbought levels, thus supporting a bounce lower. Of course, the main bias is clearly bullish so we will most likely see higher prices after the retracement.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major data releases for today so the technical aspect will decide the pair’s direction.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TAKES ANOTHER BEATING. HIGHER PRICES TO FOLLOW?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair remained in a tight range for most of yesterday’s trading session but later in the afternoon bullish pressure increased and we saw a break of the horizontal channel. However, it remains to be seen whether this break is true or not.



Technical Outlook

The move outside the horizontal channel created by 1.2195 support and 1.2280 resistance cannot be considered a true break at least at the time of writing. If it will turn out to be a clear break, then 1.2280 will become support and the next target will become 1.2350 followed by 1.2400. A more important resistance is located at 1.2570 but that’s a distance too big to be travelled over the course of one day.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a slow day ahead, with some Eurozone data making the headlines: at 9:00 am GMT the European Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about business conditions in the respective sector. The surveys act as leading indicators of optimism and economic health but the impact is often overlooked by market participants if the actual reading doesn’t differ a lot from expectations. The forecast for the Manufacturing PMI is 60.4 and for the Services PMI is 56.5.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar remained under pressure yesterday and allowed the Pound to take the pair into 1.4000 territory. The move was mostly technical but the USD weakness played an important role.



Technical Outlook

At the time of writing the pair is hovering near 1.4000, which is a major psychological level that may trigger a bounce lower. The overall bias is clearly bullish and the pair is in an uptrend so all moves south should be treated as retracements as long as price remains above the 50 EMA. The first target for the day is 1.4050 if 1.4000 turns into support.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s highlight for the Pound will be the Average Earnings Index, scheduled for release at 9:30 am GMT. The index shows changes in the wages paid by employers for labor and acts as a leading indicator of inflation because when businesses increase the price they pay for work, they usually increase the price of their products. The expected change is 2.5%, same as previous and higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound.