亚太股市先抑後扬，非美货币小幅反弹

DonChooi

★亚太地区股市走势震荡，主要市场日内均呈探底回升走势
★日经本周上涨4.3%，是5周以来首次上涨。
★非美货币亚市小幅反弹
★希腊问题再度发酵
★日内主要关注加拿大数据

亚太地区主要国家股市今日都出现了先抑後扬的走势。日经指数早盘一度下跌超过2%，但随後缩减跌幅，午後转为上涨。日经本周上涨4.3%，是5周以来首次上涨。截止北京时间14:30，日经指数收盘上涨1.7%，澳大利亚指数收盘收盘下跌0.41%，恒生指数下跌0.38%，上证指数下跌0.24%。

我们昨日提到，当前在避险情绪可能蔓延的情况下，日元存在一定的反弹风险。不过从隔夜表现来看，尽管衡量市场情绪的重要指标--标普500大幅下挫，日元依然在汇市中表现疲软。目前澳元与日元的收益率差异处於历史低点 (隔夜利率，国债收益率等) ，然而汇价却处於历史高位。这一情况同样也出现在其他日元交叉盘上 (欧元/日元，英镑/日元) 。正如我们之前所说，一旦市场避险情绪蔓延，这些货币对或许将加速去杠杆化，这将为日元提供支撑。不过日央行的货币刺激政策持续对日元施压。短期而言，美元/日元仍有继续上涨的可能。但避险情绪有可能对日元造成的影响不可忽略。

欧元区近来公布的经济数据略有提升，对於欧盟诸国来说，能够从经济衰退中走出无疑是重中之重。不过近来市场对於希腊问题的担忧又开始抬头，围绕该国救助计划融资缺口的担忧开始涌现。有消息报告如果欧元区领导人不能填补30亿至40亿欧元的希腊救助资金缺口，国际货币基金组织(IMF)准备到7月底时停止向希腊支付救助资金。交易者应该对於可能出现的突发情况做好准备，保持警惕。

澳元亚市时段小幅反弹。今日的投机情绪报告显示市场散户在本轮澳元/美元下跌中买入做多，目前澳元散户多头持仓与空头持仓比为5:1。加之中国经济形势愈发紧张，商品价格再度大跌，故而短期反弹仍不改我们整体看空澳元的观点。

日内财经数据相对较少，投资者可关注稍後发布的欧元区4月经常帐情况，以及美洲时段公布的加拿大5月CPI数据。

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Edward Snowden, the U.S. contractor who exposed a secret government electronic-surveillance program, was charged with espionage in federal court in Virginia.
The charges, which include theft of government property, are the first step in seeking to have the former Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp. (BAH) employee, who worked with the National Security Agency, arrested and returned to the U.S. from Hong Kong, a special administrative region of China.
U.S. authorities have been in regular contact with their Hong Kong counterparts regarding the extradition process, according to a U.S. official familiar with the situation. To have Snowden detained, the State Department will have to make a surrender request under a 1996 treaty with Hong Kong.
The charges, filed June 14 and unsealed yesterday in a cover sheet of the complaint obtained by Bloomberg News, aren’t necessarily of the “political character” that Hong Kong law prevents extradition for, according to Simon Young, director of the Center for Comparative and Public Law at the University of Hong Kong.
More important “will be all the surrounding circumstances including the motivation for the prosecution, the unfairness of his trial at home, and his likely treatment in custody,” Young said in an e-mail response to questions today.

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