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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR CONTINUES TO DRIFT AFTER SURPRISE TRUMP WIN

EUR/USD

Forex news: Yesterday the pair continued to move lower but as it was expected, movement was slower than a day before. Support was almost touched and price is now showing rejection.

Technical Outlook

The current momentum is bearish as the US Dollar strengthened after the Election result came out but the support around 1.0860 was tested yesterday and rejection was clearly seen. Also, price travelled a long distance south without clear retracement and the Stochastic is oversold for the second time in a short while, so all this makes us anticipate a bounce higher, possibly into the resistance at 1.0950.

Fundamental Outlook

U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Veterans Day, so volatility may be affected by this; however, at 3:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment survey, which shows the opinions of consumers on current economic conditions. The survey acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending but the impact may be muted by the recent U.S. developments; under normal circumstances, higher values than the forecast 87.4, strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average for the entire part of yesterday’s trading session as the US Dollar doesn’t seem to be affected much by the Presidential Election. Also the session lacked any economic releases and this contributed to the ranging movement.

Technical Outlook

The bulls are struggling to break 1.2480 resistance and if they succeed, we will probably see increased buying pressure and thus higher prices. A bounce lower from this level would show that the ranging period is not yet over and that the pair is headed for the first support, located at 1.2325. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was touched many times and offered support but price didn’t bounce strongly after touching it so its strength is fading and this increases the chance of a break if price touches is again.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the rest of the week, the Pound will not be affected by major economic releases today. Price direction will be decided by the technical aspect and the U.S. Consumer survey.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS MIXED REACTION. RANGING SESSION AHEAD

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Consumer Sentiment released Friday by the University of Michigan showed a 91.6 reading, better than the forecast 87.4. This added more strength to the US Dollar and generated another bearish session.

Technical Outlook

The pair moved below 1.0850 support but it stopped right after breaking it, so the strength of the bears may be fading. There are small signs of rejection and the Stochastic is oversold, suggesting that we may see a pullback today. If this is the case, price is likely to climb closer to 1.0910 which is now resistance but we don’t expect a break today. To the downside the first known support is 1.0800 but we don’t believe it will be broken today either. Most likely we will have a ranging session, without a clear winner.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s only notable event is a speech delivered by ECB President Mario Draghi at the Italian Treasury, in Rome. The scheduled time is 3:00 pm GMT but the impact on the Euro is hard to anticipate because it will depend on Draghi’s attitude and matters discussed.


GBP/USD

Despite strengthening against most of its peers, the US Dollar is not able to win the short term battle against the Pound. Friday the pair continued to move higher, with brief moments of bearish action.

Technical Outlook

The pair created a minor resistance at 1.2675 and now the oscillators are approaching overbought. Also, both oscillators are showing bearish divergence – price is making higher highs and the indicators are making lower highs – and this suggests that we may see a move south today. If this is the case, 1.2480 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will offer the first support zone and we don’t expect the pair to move below it.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major indicators on the Pound’s schedule for today and this may contribute to a ranging session.

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FOREX NEWS: BUSY DAY, HIGH VOLATILITY: GERMAN GDP, U.S. RETAIL SALES AND BRITISH INFLATION DATA

EUR/USD

Forex news: The sellers remained in control yesterday and the US Dollar continued to strengthen, taking the pair into 1.0710 support. ECB President Mario Draghi didn’t make significant comments during his speech in Italy.

Technical Outlook

The pair travelled a long distance south since the U.S. Presidential Election and although we expect the bearish behaviour to continue, a retracement to the upside is becoming more and more likely. The Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are now both oversold and price seems to react to the support at 1.0710, so the chances of a pullback have increased. After this potential pullback is complete, the downside movement will probably resume.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:00 am GMT the Preliminary version of the German Gross Domestic Product is released and anticipated to show a 0.3% change compared to the previous 0.4%. The German economy is an important pillar of the Eurozone and the GDP is the main gauge of an economy’s performance so a higher reading will probably bring Euro strength.

The U.S. Retail Sales will be today’s main mover for the US Dollar. Scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT, the indicator is expected to show a 0.6% change and because sales made at retail levels are a big part of the entire economic activity, higher numbers usually generate a stronger US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair descended yesterday and breached the support at 1.2480. The session was controlled by the bears, without any important economic releases.

Technical Outlook

Price is now attempting to break below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below the support at 1.2480 but failure to do so will most likely result in another move into 1.2675 resistance. A break below the Moving Average would put control back in the hands of the bears and would make 1.2325 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s an important day for the Pound, with two major events: the first is the release of the Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. The expected change is 1.1% (previous 1.0%), with higher values being beneficial for the Pound.

The second event is scheduled half an hour later, at 10:00 am GMT: the Inflation Report Hearings. During these hearings, BOE Governor Mark Carney will testify on inflation and economic outlook before the Parliament's Treasury Committee. Volatility is likely to increase and caution is recommended.

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FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT IN JEOPARDY, OSCILLATORS WARN OF POSSIBLE REBOUNDS

EUR/USD

The pair retraced higher yesterday but a worse than expected German GDP combined with optimistic U.S. Retail Sales, nullified almost all Euro gains and brought the pair closer to support again.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action created minor resistance at 1.0815 where we saw a pin bar (rejection candle) followed by a hefty drop. Considering this type a behaviour, we anticipate a break of 1.0710 support but the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are still “dangerously” close to their respective oversold levels, so we don’t exclude the possibility of another push higher. Overall our bias remains bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s only notable release is the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), an indicator that tracks changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services. The PPI has inflationary implications because a higher price charged by the producer will be eventually paid by the consumer. Today’s anticipated change is 0.3%, the scheduled time is 1:30 pm GMT and usually, higher values strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The greenback strengthened on the back of strong Retail Sales, while the British Consumer Price Index disappointed and as a result the pair dropped below the Moving Average yesterday, completing another bearish session.

Technical Outlook

The recent drop below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.2480 will most likely bring in additional sellers that will take the pair into 1.2325 and even further into bearish territory. Moves to the upside may be capped by the 50 EMA and by 1.2480 and we expect price to resume downside movement if it reaches the zone that was just mentioned.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we take a look at the British jobs situation with the release of the Claimant Count Change, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. The indicator shows changes in the total number of people who asked for unemployment related benefits and higher numbers usually weaken the Pound; today’s expected number is 1.9K, while the previous was 0.7K

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FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR CONTINUES ITS SUPREMACY AHEAD OF FED CHAIR YELLEN’S TESTIMONY

EUR/USD

Yesterday the pair slowed down compared to a day before but the sellers remained in control despite a slightly disappointing reading posted by the U.S. Producer Price Index. Support was breached but no significant advances were made after that.

Technical Outlook

The oscillators are now climbing slowly but price is still going downhill. This is a sign of bullish divergence and is an early warning of possible reversals or at least pullbacks to the upside. The first resistance and target for such a potential retracement is located at 1.0760 but if the pair remains below 1.0710, it means that the level may turn into resistance and in this case, we will see a continuation of the bearish trend.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s an important day for the US Dollar, starting with the release of the CORE version U.S. Consumer Price Index, scheduled for release at 1:30 pm GMT. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation but the CORE version excludes food and energy because these are considered too volatile; the FOMC usually pays more attention to this version and that’s why it tends to be more important for the US Dollar. Higher percentages than the expected 0.2% have the potential to take the pair lower.

At 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee, on economic outlook. The event is likely to generate increased volatility and possibly irregular movement, thus caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The British Claimant Count Change showed yesterday a worse than expected value but the Pound wasn’t strongly affected and the pair had a choppy trading session.

Technical Outlook

It looks like the bulls are having trouble breaking 1.2480 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the upside. This may suggest that a drop will soon follow and if this is the case, we expect the pair to find support at 1.2325. The US Dollar is gaining against most of its counterparts and the Pound is not showing clear signs of strength so we favor the short side for the time being.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales are today’s headline for the Pound. Scheduled at 9:30 am GMT, the indicator tracks changes in the total value of sales made at retail levels and can have a hefty impact on the Pound, with higher numbers strengthening it; today’s expected change is 0.5%, while the previous was 0.0%.

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FOREX NEWS: ECB’S DRAGHI SPEAKS IN FRANKFURT, EURO HEADS FOR SUPPORT

EUR/USD

The CORE version of the United States CPI showed yesterday a value below analysts’ expectations and this created brief moments of bullish price action. However, most of the gains were then erased and overall we had a choppy trading session.

Technical Outlook

We have a minor support, established at 1.0665 and if this level is broken, the next important one is located around 1.0525 but we don’t expect it to be reached this week. The oscillators are exiting oversold, so they are still favouring a stronger retracement to the upside, possibly into 1.0760; however, the medium term trend is still bearish so we don’t exclude the possibility of a drop through 1.0665.

Fundamental Outlook

European Central Bank President Draghi will speak today in Frankfurt at the 26th European Banking Congress and this may be a strong reason for volatility. The Euro is likely to show irregular movement during the speech, depending on how traders will interpret the things the President will say, as well as his attitude. The speech is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The British Retail Sales released yesterday, showed a surprising improvement of 1.9% (anticipated 0.5%) but despite all this, the pair remained below resistance and had a mixed trading session.

Technical Outlook

Despite positive British data, the pair is struggling to move above 1.2480 and remains very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This suggests that the Pound is still weak against the US Dollar and that we are likely to see a drop into 1.2325 if 1.2480 is not broken soon. Also, a decisive break of the 50 EMA would strengthen this view but as long as price remains close to the Moving Average, the pair is ranging, without clear direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major releases for the last day of the trading week so the technical side will decide today’s direction.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

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FOREX NEWS: DEEP OVERSOLD LEVELS CALL FOR BULLISH PULLBACKS

EUR/USD

The pair completed another bearish session Friday and the Dollar continued to strengthen against most of its counterparts. The pair is now approaching long term support but pullbacks are due.

Technical Outlook

The move that started with the U.S. Presidential Election is overextended, as price has travelled a long distance without a proper retracement. On a Daily chart we can clearly see that the pair didn’t have a bullish day since the Election, so it’s probably time for a move north; the oscillators have been trading below or very close to their oversold levels and this further increases the chances of bullish action. That being said, keep in mind that the overall bias is still bearish so we are likely to see a touch of 1.0525 zone soon. To the upside, the first level to watch is 1.0665, followed by 1.0700 zone.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 4:00 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will testify in Strasbourg before the European Parliament about the European Central Bank's Annual Report. Whenever heads of central banks testify or speak publicly, volatility is likely to surge and the currency may behave erratically so we recommend caution if trading at the time. This is the only indicator that may affect the pair, so until its release we may see ranging price action.


GBP/USD

Friday the bears solidified their control over the pair and moved it comfortably below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Support was touched and now a “bounce or break” scenario is in play but the trading week ended before we could get a clear answer.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2325 was hit and price seems to react to it, so today we will probably see if we are dealing with a bounce or a break. We favor the short side, considering the US Dollar strength seen lately but the oscillators are close to oversold so we don’t exclude a bounce into the 50 period EMA. In the event of a break of 1.2325, the next target will be 1.2090 but we don’t expect it to be reached today unless surprising events take place.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a lacklustre economic calendar today, so the technical aspect will determine the pair’s direction. Slow, choppy movement is also a distinct possibility.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SURRENDERS SHORT TERM DOMINANCE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was rather slow but it had a bullish bias, as the pair started a retracement which was anticipated due to the overextended condition of price. The bearish trend is still intact for the time being.

Technical Outlook

Although the pair moved higher yesterday, our bias remains bearish overall as the US Dollar is still going strong. The current move up is a much needed retracement that is likely to continue higher before downside movement can resume. The first potential resistance is located at 1.0665, followed by the more important 50 period Exponential Moving Average (the EMA will probably descend below 1.0710 until price gets there). To the downside, the low at 1.0570 is the first potential support and a break will mark the resumption of the downtrend.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable indicator on today’s economic calendar is the U.S. Existing Home Sales, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 5.43M compared to the previous 5.47M (these are annualized numbers shown in a monthly format). Higher readings are usually beneficial for the US Dollar because they show a healthy house market but the effect is not always spectacular.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound strengthened without apparent reason and the pair bounced at support, moving right back into resistance. The Moving Average was surpassed and the short term control belongs to the bulls.

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.2325 offered good support and the pair bounced perfectly off of it, breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and reaching 1.2480 resistance. At the time of writing 1.2480 is not yet broken but if the buyers can take price above it, we will probably see an extended move to the upside. The next resistance is located at 1.2675 but we don’t expect it to be touched today.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the release of the Public Sector Net Borrowing, an indicator that shows the difference between spending and income for the government and public corporations. Lower numbers are beneficial for the Pound but the indicator often has just a mild impact. The time of release is 9:30 am GMT and the expected figure is 5.9B (previous 10.1B).

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FOREX NEWS: FOMC MEETING MINUTES EYED FOR POSSIBLE RATE HINTS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was dominated by indecision and both sides looked reluctant to commit to a clear direction. U.S. house data was better than anticipated but the release had a mild impact.

Technical Outlook

The pair is in ranging mode until it breaks 1.0665 to the upside or 1.0570 to the downside. The oscillators are not showing an extreme condition so they don’t offer clear signals for the time being. If the upside prevails and immediate resistance is broken, the next target will be the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and if that mark is hit, we expect bearish action to resume.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:30 pm GMT the US Dollar will be affected by the release of the Durable Goods Orders (goods with a life expectancy of at least three years). The expected change is 1.2%, a strong increase from the previous -0.3% and usually, higher numbers show a thriving economy, thus a stronger US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT the Fed will release the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which contain details about the latest FOMC meeting as well as potential hints about a future rate hike. There has been speculation about a possible rate increase in December so if the Minutes point towards the same thing, the US Dollar is likely to strengthen.


GBP/USD

The bulls failed to break resistance yesterday and the US Dollar erased some of the previous losses. Movement was slower than a day before and the 50 EMA was not breached.

Technical Outlook

If the bounce at 1.2480 can extend past the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair is likely to move into the support located at 1.2325 during the days to come. For now our bias is neutral, waiting to see if the moving average will be broken or if it will reject price higher. Today the technical aspect will be secondary to the fundamental because both the US Dollar and the Pound will be affected by important releases.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the British HM Treasury will release the Autumn Forecast Statement, a document containing information about the government’s budget for the upcoming year as well as an economic outlook. The release can have a strong impact so caution is recommended.

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FOREX NEWS: U.S. TRADERS STEP AWAY FROM THE MARKET FOR THANKSGIVING DAY

EUR/USD

Forex News: Before the FOMC Minutes, the US Dollar strengthened against the Euro, partly due to a better than expected reading for the U.S. Durable Goods Orders; the Minutes revealed that a hike is due “relatively soon” and this is likely to generate additional Dollar strength.

Technical Outlook

The pair broke the minor support at 1.0570 and is now resting on 1.0525. The greenback seems to have recovered the strength from a few days ago, so we are likely to see a break of the mentioned support. If this is the case, the next major hurdle is located at 1.0460 which is the lowest point reached in 2015; however, until price gets there we may see some form of bullish pullback, especially if the oscillators will become oversold.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United States celebrate Thanksgiving Day and this will probably affect volatility; also, no major economic indicators will be released and all this may generate irregular movement throughout the day. On the Euro side the most notable release is the German IFO Business Climate survey, scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to show 110.6 (previous 110.5). The survey is derived from the opinions of about 7,000 businesses regarding economic conditions and usually higher numbers show optimism and bring euro strength.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued its erratic movement yesterday and the pair wasn’t much affected by the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Overall price remained in a range and didn’t threaten support but came close to resistance.

Technical Outlook

After an initial move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, price reversed and moved back above it, showing that for the time being control doesn’t belong to either side. The latest impulse is bullish and the pair is approaching the resistance at 1.2480 but it’s not clear if the bulls will manage to break this barrier. Today’s session will be affected by the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and we expect irregular movement.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a slow day for British economic indicators so the focus will be on the technical aspect and the pair will also be affected by the U.S. Thanksgiving Day, as mentioned before.