外汇分析 | Gdmfx Brokerage | 每日报告

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: WHAT GOES UP MUST COME DOWN. PULLBACKS EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair retraced lower after hitting a high at 1.2092 but most of the drop was due to profit taking by the buyers, not necessarily seller strength. The economic scene was calm and did not have an impact on price direction.

Technical Outlook

Although the pair breached 1.2070, this resistance is still holding and price is showing signs of rejection. Today we don’t expect to see substantial advances made by either side, but as long as price remains below 1.2040, our bias is slightly bearish; keep in mind that the pair is in an uptrend and this means that all moves down should be considered retracements, not reversals. Price will probably be capped today by 1.2070 to the upside and 1.2000 to the downside.

Fundamental Outlook

Neither one of the currencies will be affected by economic data today so the direction will be decided by the technical side.


GBP/USD

The Pound was boosted Friday by the better than expected numbers for the British Manufacturing Production (forecast 0.3%, actual 0.5%) and the pair took off, moving past the 1.3200 mark and reaching a high at 1.3223.

Technical Outlook

The buyers are clearly in control and will probably take the pair into 1.3250 resistance in the near future. However, at the moment price is overextended and the Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought territory, so we expect to see a pullback or at least a consolidation period with price moving in a tight range. If said pullback occurs today, the first support will be represented by 1.3160 but given the lack of economic data, we will probably see a slow session today.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the other two currencies, the Pound will not be affected by economic releases and the technical aspect will prevail.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: POUND LOSES GROUND, BRITISH CPI EYED FOR NEXT MOVE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar showed signs of recovery yesterday, a fact that generated a bearish session, with the pair moving back below the psychological level at 1.2000. The economic scene was calm, without notable events.

Technical Outlook

After the failed break of 1.2070, the pair started to roll downhill and the break of 1.2000 shows that the US Dollar is gaining some momentum. The target for today will be the confluence zone created by 1.1960, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the bullish trend line seen on the chart. If the sellers manage to take the pair below this zone, we expect to see more downside movement, possibly into 1.1900 – 1.1875 area but this will probably take more than a day to achieve.

A bounce at the confluence zone mentioned earlier and a break above 1.2000 would show that the retracement is over and would make 1.2070 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable release of the day is the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. As the name suggests, the indicator shows how many jobs are available (excluding the farming sector) and usually strengthens the US Dollar if it posts a higher than expected number but the impact is often mild. Today’s forecast is 5.96 Million, lower than the previous 6.16 Million.


GBP/USD

The Pound re-tested the highs reached last week but bounced lower yesterday, showing that the pair is in need of a pullback or a period of consolidation. Overall the session was choppy, without substantial advances.

Technical Outlook

Price action has established short term resistance at 1.3220 – 1.3225 and as mentioned before, the pair is overextended because it has travelled a long distance in a short period of time. The Relative Strength Index was also overbought and is now moving below the 70 level, indicating that we will see at least a touch of 1.3160. To the upside 1.3220 is the closest resistance, followed by 1.3250.

Fundamental Outlook

British inflation data will be released today at 8:30 am GMT in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The expected change is 2.8%, compared to the previous 2.6% and usually a higher number generates Pound strength; this is a high-impact indicator, thus caution is recommended.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: MIXED SIGNALS AHEAD OF U.S. PPI AND BRITISH UNEMPLOYMENT DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair dipped below the bullish trend line but later in the day almost all the US Dollar gains were erased and price climbed back into the previous support.

Technical Outlook

The confluence zone created by 1.1960, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the bullish trend line appeared broken yesterday but the pair soon returned to the initial point of the break. This could either mean that we are dealing with a fake break, or a re-test of the recent break, followed by a bounce lower. If the former is true, we expect a climb above 1.2000 and if the latter is true, we will probably see an extended period of downside movement.

Fundamental Outlook

Action remains relatively slow for U.S. economic data releases and the only notable indicator is the Producer Price Index (PPI), which shows changes in the price that producers charge for their goods. Most of the times a higher producer price means that consumer price will increase, so the indicator has inflationary implications and higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar. The time of release is 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 0.3% (previous -0.1%).


GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound got another boost from surprisingly better than expected inflation data and shot through the key resistance at 1.3250, renewing the uptrend.

Technical Outlook

The pair touched the support at 1.3160 as expected and then climbed strongly on the back of economic data, breaking 1.3220 and the more important resistance at 1.3250. This puts control back in the hands of the bears and suggests that more upside will follow. However, it must be noted that the Relative Strength Index is overbought and this is an early warning of a retracement, so price is likely to return to 1.3250 for a re-test. To the upside, the next major hurdle is 1.3450.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event for the Pound today will be the release of the Claimant Count Change, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. The report shows changes in the number of people who asked for unemployment related benefits and has a medium-to-high impact on the Pound. Today’s forecast is 5.3K (previous -4.2K) and higher numbers show that unemployment levels are rising and this usually weakens the currency.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: KEY INFLATION DATA MAY ADD STRENGTH TO A RECOVERING US DOLLAR

EUR/USD

Forex News: Most of yesterday’s trading session was slow but in the afternoon the US Dollar found new supporters and a heavy wave of bears stepped into the market, taking the pair close to 1.1900. Most of the move was generated by an announcement that a U.S. tax plan may be released on the 25th of September.

Technical Outlook

The pair has broken the important confluence zone created by 1.1960, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the bullish trend line. This is a major victory for the bears and suggests that more downside action will follow, with 1.1875 as target. In the meantime, 1.1900 remains a strong barrier that may trigger bounces to the upside; also keep in mind that U.S. inflation data released today will play an important role for price direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Consumer Price Index will be today’s highlight, showing changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase. This is considered the main gauge of inflation and has a high impact on the US Dollar, with higher numbers strengthening it. The expected change is 0.3% and the time of release is 12:30 pm GMT. At the same time the Core version of the CPI (excludes food and energy from calculation) comes out and is expected to show a change of 0.2%.


GBP/USD

After reaching a high at 1.3330 the pair dropped sharply and moved below 1.3250 on the back of newfound US Dollar strength. The British economic data released yesterday did not have a huge impact on price action.

Technical Outlook

Price was signalling for a relatively long while that a move lower was in the making and now the pair is facing heavy selling pressure which makes us anticipate a move below 1.3220 and close to 1.3160. If price dips that low, the 50 EMA will climb and will create a confluence zone together with the mentioned support, thus increasing the probability of a bounce higher from there. Until a lower high or a lower low is created, the uptrend is still in place.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will announce the interest rate today at 11:00 am GMT and will release a Monetary Policy Summary at the same time, which contains details of the economic reasons that determined the rate vote. Although no rate change is expected (currently 0.25%), the event is likely to cause volatility increase, especially if the Monetary Policy Summary offers hints about a near-future rate hike.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: POUND SOARS ON BOE TAPERING COMMENTS, US DOLLAR LOOKS TO RETAIL SALES FOR NEXT MOVE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Inflation in the United States improved, as shown by the CPI released yesterday (forecast 0.3%, actual 0.4%) but the US Dollar soon gave up all gains as the pair bounced at 1.1840 support.

Technical Outlook

The last four hour candle has a very long lower wick, suggesting that the bears have run out of steam and that the pair is headed north. If price moves above 1.1900, which is now resistance, we expect to see a climb into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but otherwise the pair is most likely headed towards 1.1840 for another attempt to break it. The U.S. economic data released today will probably have a big role to play for price direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event today will be the release of the U.S. Retail Sales, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a reading of 0.1%, which is a drop from the previous 0.6%. The indicator shows changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets and usually has a high impact on the US Dollar, with higher numbers strengthening it.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England (BoE) kept the rate unchanged at 0.25% but announced that stimulus tapering is likely to begin during the “coming months”. This was a strong bullish signal that took the Pound more than 200 pips higher.

Technical Outlook

The massive climb seen yesterday is likely to bring in additional buyers, taking the pair into 1.3450 resistance but if this comes true, it will probably happen next week. For today, we expect a pullback that will re-test the previous resistance at 1.1330 but in case the market overreacted to yesterday’s BoE news, then we will probably see a deeper move south. The RSI is showing bearish divergence again and is approaching overbought, thus increasing the probability of a drop.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic data releases for today, so price direction will be decided by the U.S. Retail Sales and the technical aspect.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: POUND SKYROCKETS. WHAT WILL BE THE DOLLAR’S RESPONSE?

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday was a bullish day for the pair and the US Dollar took a hit from disappointing U.S. Retail Sales (expected change 0.1%, actual change -0.2%). The pair moved above the 50 EMA but failed to close the week above 1.1960 resistance.

Technical Outlook

The latest move up lacks momentum and price action is showing rejection after breaching through 1.1960 resistance. The long wicks of the last few candles are a sign that price is about to bounce and move lower, towards 1.1900 but if the bears fail to take the pair below the 50 EMA, we will probably see a move above 1.1960 and closer to 1.2000. We don’t expect substantial movement today, due to the lack of major economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Final Consumer Price Index is today’s only notable release, scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to show a change of 1.5%. This is the main gauge of inflation in the Eurozone but the impact of the Final version is rather dim because the Flash Estimate version and German inflation numbers were already released. Nonetheless, higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD

The Pound soared Friday after a member of BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee stated that we are approaching a rate hike. This added more fuel to the Pound rally, taking the pair to the highest level since the Brexit referendum.

Technical Outlook

The pair reached a high at 1.3616 and had its best week in a long time but moves like the one seen Friday are usually followed by a pullback or at least a period of consolidation. The Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought territory, thus adding to the probability of a move lower but we don’t expect price to retrace too low because the bulls are clearly in control. The first potential support is located at 1.3450 but it’s unlikely that the pair will reach it today.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by economic data releases, thus price direction will be determined by the technical aspect.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: CONSOLIDATION PHASE STILL UNDERWAY. BREAKOUTS WILL SOON FOLLOW

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair remained in a relatively tight range for the most part of yesterday’s trading session and this can be attributed to the lack of major news releases. The European Final CPI came out with the expected value, so the impact was low.

Technical Outlook

The bulls are still struggling to break 1.1960 resistance but the bears cannot keep the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so we can say that control doesn’t belong to either side. The next direction will depend on the economic data released today but as long as price is hovering between 1.1960 and the 50 period EMA, our outlook is mostly neutral, expecting a strong break of one of these technical hurdles.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment is today’s highlight for the Euro. This is a survey of about 300 German professional analysts and investors regarding a 6-month outlook for the German economy. Its impact has diminished lately, but higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro. The release is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and the expected reading is 12.3 (previous 10.0).

On the US Dollar side the most notable event is the release of the Building Permits, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 1.22 Million new permits. Higher numbers show increased activity in the construction sector and usually strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is often mild.


GBP/USD

The pair retraced lower yesterday, as it was expected after the strong climb seen Friday but the overall picture remains strongly bullish.

Technical Outlook

The pullback seen yesterday didn’t bring the Relative Strength Index below its overbought level, so we may very well see more downside movement or consolidation. To the upside the first barrier remains the high at 1.3616, while 1.3450 is the first potential support but this is still a distant target for one day unless surprising developments take place. Of course, the pair is in a strong uptrend so we will probably see upside movement once the retracement is over.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar lacks any major releases for the Pound today, so the pair’s direction will be mainly dictated by the technical aspect and the U.S. data.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: FED IN THE LIMELIGHT: POTENTIAL BALANCE SHEET REDUCTION ON THE HORIZON

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was mostly bullish, due in part to a better than expected German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey (forecast 12.3, actual 17.0). The key resistance at 1.2000 was touched but it pushed price lower almost immediately.

Technical Outlook

Although the pair moved higher yesterday, the trading range was lower than 50 pips at the time of writing, so momentum is clearly lacking. This is likely to change today with the FOMC Rate Meeting but until then we will probably see choppy movement, capped by the resistance at 1.2000 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If a breakout happens before the FOMC events, it may trigger additional movement but to a limited extent.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event today is without a doubt the FOMC Meeting scheduled at 6:00 pm GMT. They will release a set of Economic Projections for the next two years, as well as the Rate Statement that contains the outcome of their vote on the interest rate (no change expected) and insights into the reasons that determined the vote.

The Fed is expected to start shrinking their balance sheet and if they announce it today, we will surely see very strong US Dollar movement. Also, at 6:30 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference discussing the rate decision among other things. Audience questions are expected and volatility is likely to surge.


GBP/USD

The pair continued lower yesterday and approached the support at 1.3450, without threatening a break. The picture remains bullish and this behaviour can be considered a normal retracement, not a reversal.

Technical Outlook

Today we may see a drop into 1.3450 support as the Relative Strength Index is descending below its 70 level after spending a long period in overbought territory. To the upside the first resistance is located at 1.3616 but today we have important economic releases for both currencies, so the technical aspect will be overshadowed by the fundamentals.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales are today’s main event for the Pound. The release is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the expected value is 0.2% (previous 0.3%); the report tracks changes in the total value of sales made through retail stores and has a high impact on the currency. Higher numbers show increased economic activity and usually strengthen the Pound.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: THE US DOLLAR IS BACK! BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS

EUR/USD

Forex News: As expected the Fed kept the rate unchanged (<1.25%) and announced that they will begin balance sheet reduction in October, which was perceived as hawkish by market participants. As a result, the pair tumbled through several support levels, on the back of US Dollar momentum.

Technical Outlook

Newfound US Dollar strength took the pair below 1.1900 after a near touch of 1.2040 earlier in the session and the momentum is likely to extend throughout today’s session, so we expect at least a touch of the support located at 1.1840. However, it must be noted that sharp moves tend to retrace a little after the initial momentum wanes, so we may see a move up that will find resistance around 1.1900. Despite the recent move, the pair is not in a downtrend so we cannot rule out a stronger move to the upside.

Fundamental Outlook

ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver opening remarks at the European Systemic Risk Board annual conference, in Frankfurt. The impact if the speech is uncertain and will depend on Draghi’s attitude but caution is recommended whenever heads of central banks speak publicly. The event is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT.

The most notable event for the US Dollar will be the release of the U.S. Unemployment Claims, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The indicator shows how many persons have asked for unemployment related benefits but it’s a weekly release and this means that it has a rather low impact. However, higher numbers than the expected 302K usually weaken the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound benefited from much better than anticipated Retail Sales numbers early in yesterday’s session and the pair jumped higher. However, US Dollar strength generated by the Fed meeting erased al gains and took the pair into support.

Technical Outlook

After a short lived break of 1.3616 resistance, the pair dropped to touch 1.3450 but at least at the time of writing, the level was not breached. If a break occurs, the drop will probably extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but once that mark is hit, we expect to see moves north, based on the fact that the pair is still in a strong uptrend. On the other hand, a break of the 50 EMA would show increased bearish pressure and would weaken the uptrend.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar for the Pound is blank today, so price direction will be determined by the technical aspect but also by the effects of yesterday’s events.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: FINISHING THE WEEK WITH SPEECHES FROM ECB PRESIDENT DRAGHI AND BRITISH PRIME MINISTER MAY

EUR/USD

Forex News: The momentum created by the Fed Meeting slowed down yesterday and the pair moved above the psychological level at 1.1900. The session was bullish but bearish pressure is still high.

Technical Outlook

After the failed break of 1.1875, the pair climbed above 1.1900 and seems headed for the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. However, it must be noted that the last bullish candles are showing long wicks and price lacks upside momentum, so we may very well see a drop even before the 50 EMA is reached. The bias remains bearish but the pair is not in a downtrend.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:00 am GMT the European Manufacturing and Services PMIs are released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding economic and business conditions in their respective sectors. The indicators have a low to medium impact on the Euro, with higher numbers strengthening the single currency. The forecast for the Manufacturing PMI is 57.2 and for the Services PMI is 54.7.

At the same time (8:00 am GMT), ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at the Trinity College, in Dublin. The impact will depend on the matters discussed but caution is recommended whenever heads of central banks speak publicly.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s trading session was slow, with price consolidating above 1.3450 support. The economic calendar didn’t hold any important events and this contributed to the slow movement of price.

Technical Outlook

The overall trend is clearly bullish but the latest momentum is bearish and now the pair is consolidating (moving in a range) in close vicinity of 1.3450 support. We already saw a failed attempt to break the level so if it won’t broken on a second attempt, the pair will probably be headed higher or it will remain in a range. If 1.3450 is broken, the 50 period EMA will become the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

British Prime Minister Theresa May will speak today in Florence on the post-Brexit relationship between Britain and the European Union. The exact time of the speech is not known at the time of writing, so we recommend keeping an eye on our Economic Calendar for updates.