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FOREX NEWS: NON-FARM PAYROLLS – THE CATALYST FOR STRONG BREAKOUTS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair just completed another lacklustre day, without any major releases and with price trapped between support and resistance, bouncing almost perfectly between them.

Technical Outlook

Once the pair entered the channel between 1.0680 resistance and 10630 support, it marked the beginning of a ranging period that will be over only after a strong break of either one of the barriers. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is still above price and angled downwards, so the overall bias is still bearish but considering the sideways movement seen over the last couple of days, our short term bias is neutral. It must be noted that after periods of inactivity and ranging movement, the pair tends to move strongly in one direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls are today’s highlight and also an indicator that will probably take the pair out of the range seen this week. The report is released at 12:30 pm GMT and shows changes in the total number of employed people, apart from the farming industry; it is widely considered the most important U.S. jobs data and usually strengthens the US Dollar if it shows a reading above expectations. Today’s forecast is a change of 174K, lower than the previous 235K.


GBP/USD

Yesterday for the entire trading session the pair remained close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, which is now almost flat, indicating a lack of determination from either side.

Technical Outlook

On the chart above we can see the pair is trapped inside a triangle pattern, which will probably decide the next direction and until price moves out of it, we can expect so see more of the same choppy movement. The resistance zone located at 1.2480 – 1.2500 is also a strong barrier, while support is located at 1.2420 and for a true breakout we need to see these levels broken decisively. Important data comes out today so the pair is likely to show a strong breakout.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing Production is released, showing changes in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector. A higher change than the forecast 0.3% indicates increased economic activity and usually strengthens the Pound. Of course, the pair will be directly affected by the U.S. employment data.

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FOREX NEWS: WEAK NFP MOSTLY IGNORED, US DOLLAR ON THE ATTACK

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday showed a disappointing number of only 98K new jobs and this initially weakened the US Dollar but very soon after, the pair reversed and started to move south. The Dollar was affected by a U.S. missile attack on Syria and this may be one of the reasons for the weird behaviour seen Friday.

Technical Outlook

After the initial spike up, the pair broke 1.0630 support, and exited the horizontal channel it was trapped in for the most part of last week. However, the USD had a surprising reaction to a worse than expected NFP and this makes the next move uncertain because we may see a delayed effect and thus a move up for the pair. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic have entered oversold territory and this increases the chance of a move up, possibly into 1.0630.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:10 pm GMT Fed Chair Yellen will speak at the University of Michigan but the impact is hard to anticipate, mostly because of the late hour, when volatility is usually low. Nonetheless, the event should be treated with caution.


GBP/USD

The pair exited the triangle pattern even before the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls and continued lower after the report came out, so Friday’s entire trading session was bearish, a fact that could indicate that the pair will continue on a downward path.

Technical Outlook

Last week ended with the pair just below 1.2385 support after a break of the triangle pattern seen on the chart above. Today we expect to see a small pullback after reaching 1.2350 support, considering the oversold condition indicated by the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic, but after this correction we believe that 1.2350 will be broken and the pair will continue lower. On the other hand, we may see a slow, ranging session considering the lack of major economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today, so direction will be mostly affected by the technical side.

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FOREX NEWS: BULLISH PRESSURE MOUNTS AHEAD OF BRITISH INFLATION DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was mostly controlled by the bulls after the pair formed a bottom at 1.0570. No major economic indicators were released and this partly contributed to the relatively low volatility.

Technical Outlook

We are currently seeing the beginning of a retracement started at 1.0570 and signalled earlier by the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic. This bullish correction may extend into the resistance at 1.0630 but it must be noted that the pair is in a medium term downtrend so we cannot exclude the possibility of a drop into 1.0525 even before price retraces higher. A confirmed break of 1.0570 will make 1.0525 the first target but our view for today is bullish, expecting the said correction.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s most notable release is the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, which is a survey widely respected because it is based on the opinions of about 275 German professional investors and analysts, who are well informed about economic conditions due to the nature of their jobs. The time of the release is 9:00 am GMT, the forecast is 13.2 (previous 12.8) and usually a higher number shows optimism and triggers Euro strength.


GBP/USD

After dipping below 1.2385 for a short while, the pair started climbing and is now testing the previous support which may turn into resistance. Bullish pressure is starting to mount but for now this is just a retracement from a short term perspective.

Technical Outlook

The oscillators are moving higher after reaching oversold and the pair is testing 1.2420 resistance, approaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If the current level is broken, we expect to see an encounter with the 50 EMA, where a bounce lower is very likely to occur. As long as price remains below the down trend line seen on the chart above, our view is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Pound will be affected by the release of the British Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and can have a strong impact on the currency. Higher than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the Pound but the reaction is mild if the actual number matches analysts’ forecast. Today’s forecast is a change of 2.2%, compared to the previous 2.3%.

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FOREX NEWS: MORE THAN A RETRACEMENT? US DOLLAR WAVERS AGAINST COUNTERPARTS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey posted a reading of 19.5, much better than the anticipated 13.2, so yesterday’s session mostly belonged to the bulls but resistance wasn’t yet threatened.

Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is in a retracement that will probably extend into the resistance located at 1.0630 and into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The way price will react when (and if) it reaches that zone, will offer clues about the next move: if it will show difficulties breaking the zone, then the retracement up will probably end and we will see another test of 1.0570. On the other hand, an easy break will make 1.0680 the next destination. Our view is slightly bearish after a touch of the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro and US Dollar will not be affected today by major economic releases, so the technical aspect will be the deciding factor for direction.


GBP/USD

British inflation improved as shown by yesterday’s CPI release (actual change 2.3%, expected 2.2%) and this was one of the reasons for the climb above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and for the break of the bearish trend line.

Technical Outlook

The break above the 50 EMA and above the bearish trend line shows that the current move is more than a simple retracement, so it’s very likely to see an extended climb, possibly into 1.2550. It must be noted that at the time of writing the resistance zone around 1.2480 is still holding so we may see a small bounce lower before the level is broken. Also, if the pair reaches 1.2550 it will probably retrace on the way there, meaning that is will not shoot up in a straight line.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Pound will be affected by the release of the British Claimant Count, an indicator that shows changes in the total number of persons who asked for unemployment related social help. A higher number signals decreased economic activity and usually weakens the Pound but the impact is often mild. Today’s forecast is a change of -10.2K, while the previous was -11.3K.

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FOREX NEWS: VOLATILITY DIMS, PAIRS SHOW MIXED TRADING SIGNALS AHEAD OF U.S. PRODUCER PRICE DATA AND CONSUMER SENTIMENT SURVEY

EUR/USD

Forex News: After bouncing perfectly at 1.0630 resistance, the pair remained in a relatively tight range and moved almost sideways for the remainder of yesterday’s trading session. The pair is still below the 50 EMA and the bias remains slightly bearish.

Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading below 1.0630 resistance and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we anticipate a drop through 1.0570 support and an encounter with 1.0525. Once and if the two resistance elements are broken, we expect to see a move into 1.0680. However, it must be noted that at the moment control doesn’t clearly belong to either side and the pair seems to be drifting without a strong bias.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Dollar will be influenced today by two indicators with a potentially high impact: the Producer Price Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The first indicator shows changes in the price charged by producers for their goods and has inflationary implications because a higher producer price will eventually generate a higher consumer price. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 0.0% (previous 0.3%).

The Consumer Sentiment survey comes out at 2:00 pm GMT and offers insights into the opinions of 500 consumers regarding current and future economic conditions. The expected value is 97.1 and numbers above it show optimism, usually creating USD strength.


GBP/USD

The British Claimant Count released yesterday showed that a higher number of individuals asked for unemployment related benefits but another report released at the same time showed that average earnings have increased. This was perceived as bullish for the Pound and outweighed the unemployment data.

Technical Outlook

The pair broke 1.2480 and remained above it, so now we anticipate a move into 1.2550 in the near future. It is very possible to see a correction lower once the Relative Strength Index enters overbought territory, but this move will be probably rejected by 1.2480, which has already turned into support. If this support will be broken, we expect a move back to the recently broken trend line.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today, so the pair will be affected by the U.S. announcements and by the technical aspect.

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FOREX NEWS: EASTER APPROACHES, IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened as U.S. President Trump mentioned in an interview that the currency is too strong for his liking. This took the pair into the resistance at 1.0680, where it bounced lower and moved back under the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook

The pair’s next move is uncertain, considering that today most European banks will be closed in observance of Good Friday and this will affect volatility. Strictly from a technical point of view, we must recognize that the US Dollar erased most of the losses and moved below the 50 period EMA and below 1.0630 support, so now the next destination may very well be 1.0570. A quick move above 1.0630 and above the 50 EMA will turn the tide in favour of the bulls once again.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT two important releases will affect the US Dollar: the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Retail Sales. The former indicator shows changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase and acts as a key gauge of inflation, while the latter shows changes in the total value of sales made at retail levels. The CPI is expected to show a value of 0.0% and the Retail Sales a change of 0.1%; higher numbers for these indicators usually strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The pair had a similar behaviour to the EUR/USD, strengthening in the first part of the session, then dropping back down through the recently broken level. Most of the climb was generated by U.S. President Trump’s comments about the strength of the US Dollar.

Technical Outlook

The bullish move ran out of steam after a short-lived break of 1.2550 resistance zone and it’s very likely to see a move back into 1.2480 support. By the time price gets there, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will probably climb and will form a confluence zone together with the level we just mentioned; this zone will be tough to break and will probably reject price higher but Good Friday and the approaching of the Easter Holidays will probably generate irregular price action.

Fundamental Outlook

British banks will be closed today in observance of Good Friday and volatility will be affected by this, so we recommend caution. The pair will also be affected by the U.S. releases mentioned earlier.

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FOREX NEWS: EASTER MONDAY THROWS MARKETS INTO UNPREDICTABILITY

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair moved mostly sideways Friday and was affected by thin volatility generated by the approaching of the Easter Holiday. U.S. economic data was disappointing but this didn’t have a strong effect on the pair’s movement.

Technical Outlook

The last trading session doesn’t hold enough clues for an accurate prediction and on top of that, today most European banks will be closed, celebrating Easter. This means that price action will be substantially affected and technical analysis is inconclusive. From a longer term perspective, as long as the pair remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our view is slightly bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

Banks across Europe will be closed today, celebrating Easter Monday. This will almost certainly affect the pair’s behaviour, generating irregular volatility and possibly erratic price action.


GBP/USD

Friday the pair showed bullish action but the resistance at 1.2550 wasn’t threatened and volatility remained relatively low, mostly due to Good Friday.

Technical Outlook

Price action will be unpredictable today and affected by the Easter Holiday. Volatility can quickly change from very low to very high and the pair is likely to move erratically. Once behaviour returns to normal, we expect a touch of 1.2550 if price remains above the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

UK banks will also be closed in observance of the Easter Holiday and no major economic indicators will be released. Price movement will be affected so we recommend caution.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR BOUNCES BACK AFTER MONDAY’S BEAT DOWN

EUR/USD

Forex News: Price action was bullish yesterday, with the pair moving above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above previous resistance. Some of this movement may be attributed to the Easter holidays and thin liquidity.

Technical Outlook

If the pair holds above 1.0630, we will probably see a test of 1.0680, and a consequent move into 1.0710. However, we don’t expect to see a break of the zone created by the two mentioned levels today, mostly because there are no major releases scheduled and the markets may still be affected by irregular volatility. For now the pair remains in a range and an overbought condition of one or both oscillators will probably trigger a move down.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Building Permits are released, showing how many permits were issued for the construction of residential buildings during the previous month. The number is expressed in an annualized format and can strengthen the US Dollar if it comes out above the forecast, which for today is 1.25M; however, more often than not the impact of this indicator is medium, not high.


GBP/USD

The Pound won the battle against the US Dollar yesterday and the pair moved strongly above the resistance located at 1.2550. This sets the stage for a continued climb, into the next resistance zone.

Technical Outlook

The strong move above 1.2550 is likely to extend into the high at 1.2615 but it should be noted that the Relative Strength Index has reached its 70 level, thus indicating an overbought condition of the pair. This increases the chance of a move lower to re-test the recently broken level (1.2550) before 1.2615 can be reached.

Fundamental Outlook

The pair will be affected only by the U.S. indicator mentioned above, because the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important releases.

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FOREX NEWS: POUND SLICES THROUGH RESISTANCE LIKE A HOT KNIFE THROUGH BUTTER

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a bullish trading session yesterday, with the Euro affected by French election polls. Resistance was broken and a retracement is due before further advances can be made.

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.0680 was broken during yesterday’s rally and now we expect to see a touch of 1.0710, followed by a bounce lower. The pair has travelled a relatively long distance to the upside, compared to the slow movement seen over the recent period, and the Relative Strength Index is touching its 70 level, giving an early signal of a move lower due to overbought condition. After said retracement, we expect to see a move into 1.0800 resistance in the near future, if the pair remains above the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable release of the day is the Final version of the European Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to show a change of 1.5%, same as previous. The CPI acts as the main gauge of inflation, with higher numbers strengthening the Euro but the Final version is usually the least important.


GBP/USD

British Prime Minister Theresa May made an unscheduled appearance yesterday, and called for an early General Election in June. This triggered a massive move of about 250 pips to the upside and took the pair through several resistances.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s huge rally brought the pair into 1.2770 key resistance, which is also the top of the channel that confined the pair for a long time (better seen on a Daily chart). The strength of this level, combined with the deep overbought condition shown by the Relative Strength Index, make us anticipate a bounce lower, but the Pound is on its way to break 1.2770 after this possible pullback. Any other surprise speeches from British politicians will likely trigger more volatility, so we recommend caution.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements but keep an eye out for possible election or Brexit talks.

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FOREX NEWS: RETRACEMENTS UNDERWAY, BULLS STILL IN CHARGE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The European Final CPI came out with the expected value and did not have a major impact on the Euro. The pair climbed above 1.0710 and is now re-testing the level from above.

Technical Outlook

If 1.0710 level will turn into support, thus rejecting the pair higher, the chances of a move into 1.0775, followed by 1.0800 will increase. The Relative Strength Index is coming down after visiting the overbought zone, so the current bearish retracement may extend into 1.0680 where a bullish bounce will have a higher probability of happening. Our bias is bullish, expecting a break of yesterday’s high.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index comes out, showing the opinions of about 250 manufacturers from the Philadelphia district regarding the general level of business conditions. It acts as a leading indicator of economic health, with a medium impact. Usually, numbers above the forecast 25.6, strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Fuelled by the snap election call, the Pound’s gains extended way past 1.2770 resistance and into 1.2855 where it finally paused. Yesterday’s trading session slowed down but the climb will likely continue.

Technical Outlook

Price didn’t stop at 1.2770 and pierced through 1.2855, creating a high at 1.2905 before retracing below the previous level. It seems that 1.2855 is still resistance because we can clearly see several candles that touch the level but remain below it. So, we are dealing with strong resistance and an extremely overbought Relative Strength Index, facts that make us anticipate a move lower before bullish momentum will resume.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Carney will speak at 3:30 pm GMT at the Institute of International Finance Policy Summit and an hour later he will participate in a panel discussion at an event organized by the Bank of France. Pound volatility may surge during these events, so we recommend caution.