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FOREX NEWS: UNCERTAINTY AHEAD OF U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS. PREPARE FOR A VOLATILITY BOOST

EUR/USD

Forex News: The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change posted a much better number than expected (actual 253K, forecast 181K) and this strengthened the US Dollar, bringing the pair lower after another encounter with 1.1240 zone of resistance.

Technical Outlook

Most of the US Dollar gains triggered by the positive employment data were erased soon after but overall the session was bearish. The failed break of 1.1240 – 1.1250 zone is a sign that the uptrend may be coming to an end and makes the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the first target, followed by 1.1170. A break of 1.1240 would invalidate this scenario but price action today will be influenced by the U.S. employment data and the technical side will be secondary at release.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:30 pm GMT the most important U.S. jobs indicator will be released: the Non-Farm Payrolls (aka Non-Farm Employment Change). The report shows changes in the total number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming sector and usually has a very strong impact on the US Dollar, with higher numbers strengthening it. Today’s forecast is a change of 186K, a drop from the previous 211K.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair descended into 1.2850 support on the back of US Dollar strength but the bears failed to break the level and instead price bounced higher, testing resistance again.

Technical Outlook

During the last couple of days the pair bounced between support and resistance, offering mixed signals. As long as the pair remains above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and breaks 1.2900, our bias is bullish but the technical aspect will be secondary to the fundamental as both currencies in the pair will be influenced by economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The Construction PMI is today’s highlight for the Pound, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of 52.7. This is a survey derived from the opinions of purchasing managers, which tries to gauge their opinions regarding business conditions and the overall health of the Construction sector. Usually a value above expectations strengthens the Pound but the effect is limited if the actual number matches the forecast. The pair will also be affected by the release of the U.S. jobs data.

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FOREX NEWS: POUND AND US DOLLAR AFFECTED BY SERVICES DATA, EUROPEAN BANKS CLOSED DUE TO WHIT MONDAY

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday was all about the story of the US Dollar and the Non-farm Payrolls that posted a change of 138K, much lower than the anticipated 181K. The previous value was also revised lower, from 211K to 174K and all this weakened the greenback severely, taking the pair above resistance.

Technical Outlook

Before the NFP release the pair had a slow session but once the numbers came out, the US Dollar weakened and as a result the resistance at 1.1240 was broken. We may see a re-test of the level, which may turn into support but for now the first target is located at 1.1340. It is likely that the trip there will take more than one day but a quick return below 1.1240 followed by a break of the 50 period EMA would invalidate such a scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Dollar will be affected by the release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which is a survey that acts as a leading indicator of economic health and optimism. The forecast is 57.3 and usually, higher numbers strengthen the currency.

Today German and French banks will be closed due to Whit Monday and this may affect volatility, possibly creating choppy price movement.


GBP/USD

For the entire last week price was trapped inside a horizontal channel and Friday was no exception. The US Dollar weakness generated by the NFP release took the pair back into the upper part of the channel but a breakout didn’t materialize.

Technical Outlook

The bounce at 1.2850 was generated by the disappointing NFP numbers and the move is likely to extend past the resistance at 1.2900. The short term bias is bullish but last week ended with price very close to the 50 period EMA which is flat, thus confirming that the pair is in a ranging state. Our bias is neutral but a break of 1.2900 could generate an extended move in that direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Services PMI is released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers from the services sector about business conditions and overall economic health of the said sector. The forecast is 55.1 and higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound.

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FOREX NEWS: BRITISH ELECTION SCENE HEATS UP – CONSERVATIVES BACK IN THE LEAD

EUR/USD

Forex News: Price action was slow yesterday and the fact that some European banks were closed due to Whit Monday contributed to the lack of movement. The U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI came very close to analysts’ expectations, so the impact was low.

Technical Outlook

The pair retraced into 1.1240 which was the previous resistance, now turned support and here the next move will be probably decided. A bounce would confirm 1.1240 as strong support and would make 1.1340 the next target, while a break would take the pair into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and if this dynamic support is broken, we will probably see a stronger move down, with 1.1170 as target. The pair is still in an uptrend but bearish pressure has increased.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major economic releases, with the only notable one being the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings, an indicator that tracks the number of available jobs during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Today’s forecast is 5.65 Million and usually a higher number strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is often limited; the time of the release is 2:00 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

The Pound dropped after the Services PMI disappointed (forecast 55.1, actual 53.8) but then found new buyers after a poll showed that May’s Conservative Party is back in the lead. This took the pair above the resistance at 1.2900 and created a bullish session.

Technical Outlook

The break of the horizontal channel that confined the pair for almost a week will probably trigger a stronger move upwards, making 1.2990 – 1.3000 the next likely destination. However, it must be noted that price action is still choppy and heavily influenced by Election polls or even by speculation about their outcome and this means the pair can move strongly to either side, without warning. All this makes our bias mostly neutral for the days to come and we recommend caution.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by major economic indicators, so the technical aspect will prevail, assuming there are no surprises coming from the Election scene.

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FOREX NEWS: PRICE IN TIGHT RANGES AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO ECB DECISION AND BRITISH ELECTIONS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair traded above 1.1240 support but movement remained very slow and price was confined in a tight range. The U.S. JOLTS Job Openings posted a better than expected value but this didn’t spur volatility.

Technical Outlook

The pair is now moving inside a tight range, defined by 1.1240 support and 1.1280 – 1.1285 resistance but volatility is likely to remain relatively low until Thursday’s ECB rate announcement and press conference. A break of either support or resistance will probably trigger an extended move in that direction but as long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bullish, aiming for 1.1340 resistance, a level that will probably not be reached today.

Fundamental Outlook

We don’t have anything major on today’s economic calendar so the pair’s direction will be mostly decided by the technical side.


GBP/USD

After reaching a session high at 1.2950, the pair tumbled below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but erased some of the losses soon after. Overall the session was choppy, with quick reversals on the lower time frames.

Technical Outlook

The four hour candle that pierced the 50 period EMA is showing a long wick in its lower part, thus suggesting rejection and possibly a move higher. If price breaches 1.2900 again, it will probably move into yesterday’s high at 1.2950 and if it remains below the 50 EMA, we will probably see an encounter with 1.2850. The pair remains high-risk and should be treated with caution.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today but keep an eye out for any news regarding the British Parliamentary Elections.

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FOREX NEWS: GET READY FOR ACTION. BRITISH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS ARE FINALLY HERE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had an interesting session yesterday, dropping sharply below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and immediately climbing above it. The initial move down can be attributed to rumours that the ECB will cut their inflation expectations.

Technical Outlook

Price continues to lack a clear direction and the pair is still stuck in a choppy range-mode, with sharp reversals. However, the quick move above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average shows some bullish pressure and makes us anticipate a break of 1.1280 resistance, en route to 1.1340 – 1.1350. Another dip below the 50 EMA would probably take price into 1.1170 but keep in mind that today the technical aspect will be secondary, mostly due to the ECB Meeting.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:45 am GMT the European Central Bank will announce the interest rate decision and although no change is anticipated (currently 0.00%), the Euro is likely to show increased volatility. Later at 12:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold his usual press conference, during which he will discuss the rate decision and will answer questions coming from journalists. Usually the Q&A section of the press conference creates the strongest movement and caution is recommended until it concludes.


GBP/USD

There was increased buying pressure yesterday and the pair pushed higher after a bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. It looks like the Pound is breaking out of the choppiness seen lately but today the British Parliamentary Elections take place and this will heavily affect its behavior.

Technical Outlook

Price is trading above the 50 period EMA after a strong bounce and the short term outlook is bullish, aiming for 1.2990 but as mentioned before, today’s price action will be heavily affected by polls and rumors regarding the Parliamentary Elections, so a technical prediction cannot be made accurately. We recommend caution throughout the day.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is all about the British Parliamentary Elections! Although the official results will be know late at night, the Pound will be affected by exit polls and even speculation throughout the day. Caution is highly recommended.

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FOREX NEWS: PRICE DIRECTION STILL UNCERTAIN AFTER BRITISH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The ECB maintained the rate at 0.00% but reduced their inflation expectations for 2017 and the following years, so the Euro was overall under pressure, moving slightly below the 1.1200 handle.

Technical Outlook

Price action remained very choppy throughout yesterday’s trading session and a quick dip below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average was soon reversed. Despite this choppiness, our bias is slightly bearish as long as the pair is trading below 1.1280 resistance; the first potential target for this bearish scenario is 1.1170 followed by 1.1120, while to the upside, a break of the mentioned resistance would open the door for a move into 1.1340.

Fundamental Outlook

The trading week ends without major economic releases, so price action today will be mostly decided by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

At the time of writing the official result of the British Parliamentary Elections is not known and overall yesterday’s session was choppy, with back and forth movement.

Technical Outlook

The pair descended into 1.2900 support where it encountered the 50 EMA as well, and as a result it immediately jumped higher, closer to the day’s high. The Pound remains under heavy influence from the Parliamentary Elections and because the official results are not in at the time of writing, we cannot make a proper assessment of price action. For now we recommend caution, but strictly from a technical standpoint, the pair shows rejection at support, so the bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production is today’s highlight, scheduled for release at 8:30 am GMT. This indicator shows changes in the total value of goods generated by the Manufacturing sector and usually has a medium-to-high impact on the Pound. A higher change than the anticipated 0.8% (previous -0.6%) shows increased economic activity and usually strengthens the Pound.

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FOREX NEWS: POUND POSTS MAJOR LOSSES. CHOPPY MOVEMENT OVERALL

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair continued the bearish move started a day before and reached the support at 1.1170. The lack of economic indicators generated a slow trading session, without substantial developments.

Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is showing rejection at 1.1170 support, with the Stochastic in oversold territory and the Relative Strength Index close to oversold. This suggests that today we are likely to see a climb into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average where the next move will be decided: a break will make 1.1240 the target for the day and a bounce will bring price back down into 1.1170 support. As long as the pair is trading below the 50 EMA our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the focus will be entirely on the technical aspect because the economic calendar lacks major releases for both currencies.


GBP/USD

The pair dropped sharply on news of a hung British Parliament (Conservatives won but did not secure majority), reaching a low of 1.2635 but after the initial move, price retraced and showed choppy action.

Technical Outlook

The move generated by the result of the Elections will probably extend lower in the near future but currently it seems that market participants are reluctant to commit to either side. If the pair climbs, it will encounter resistance at 1.2770, while to the downside 1.2635 is the first hurdle. We may see a slow and choppy session today, until market participants decide the next move, but overall our bias is bearish. Keep in mind that the pair remains high-risk.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the other two currencies, the Pound has a light economic calendar ahead, so the technical side will prevail and will be the main price driver.

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FOREX NEWS: BRITISH CONSUMER PRICE INDEX EYED FOR NEXT POUND MOVE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The economic scene was calm yesterday, without any important releases and this generated slow, choppy movement in the first part of the day. However, in the second part of the trading session the bears stepped in and now rejection is seen at the 50 period EMA.

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average proved to be a strong barrier yesterday and stopped a climb seen early during yesterday’s session. For today we expect to see at least an encounter with 1.1170 support, if not a break, but if price moves above the 50 period EMA, we will probably see another break of 1.1240 resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released, showing the opinions of about 275 professional German investors and analysts about a 6-month economic outlook. The survey has lost some of its impact lately, but it still remains a noteworthy indicator that can strengthen the Euro if it posts higher numbers than the forecast 21.6.

On the US Dollar side we have the Producer Price Index, released at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a change of 0.0% from the previous 0.5%. The index tracks changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and has inflationary implications because a higher producer price will eventually translate into a higher consumer price.


GBP/USD

After a perfect bounce at resistance, the pair resumed downward movement and dropped for more than 100 pips. This shows that the Pound is still affected by the result of the British Parliamentary Elections and calls for further caution.

Technical Outlook

The perfect bounce at 1.2770 resistance made 1.2635 the first target. Once and if price gets here, we will probably see a bounce higher or a period of stagnation, during which the market will decide the next move. If 1.2635 is broken, the next support is located around 1.2570 – 1.2550 but keep in mind that today the Pound will be affected by inflation data and this is likely to be the deciding factor for the next move.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event for the Pound today is the release of the British Consumer Price Index, which is the most important gauge of inflation. Usually this indicator has a strong impact on the currency, with higher numbers strengthening it; today’s forecast is a change of 2.7%, same as previous.

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FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON THE US DOLLAR. MASSIVE MOVEMENT ANTICIPATED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a slow session yesterday, with price bouncing in a relatively tight range. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was touched again but the bulls lacked the necessary strength to break it.

Technical Outlook

Some rejection is seen at the 50 EMA but overall, yesterday’s session lacked any conviction and price did not move with a clear bias. The market is likely to remain in a tight range, with low volatility and choppy movement until the U.S. events unfold and afterwards, direction will be determined by their outcome. If price moves into 1.1240 resistance or 1.1170 support before the key events scheduled for today, we expect to see bounces rather than breakouts.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a big day ahead for the US Dollar: at 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Consumer Price Index is released and expected to post a change of 0.2%, same as previous. This is a key gauge of inflation and usually has a strong impact on the US Dollar, with higher numbers strengthening it. At the same time, the U.S. Retail Sales numbers come out, showing changes in the total value of sales made at retail level. This is another important indicator that can strengthen the greenback if it posts higher numbers. The forecast for today is a change of 0.1% compared to the previous 0.4%.

At 6:00 pm GMT the Fed will announce the interest rate (current <1.00%, forecast <1.25%) along with a FOMC Statement that offers details about the reasons that determined the rate decision. Half an hour later, at 6:30 pm GMT, Fed Chair Yellen will hold a press conference during which she will answer journalists’ questions. All these events have the potential to create very high volatility, so caution is recommended throughout the day.


GBP/USD

The Pound benefited from a better than expected CPI (forecast 2.7%, actual 2.9%) and rallied before reaching the support at 1.2635. Overall the session was bullish but the pair is still under pressure.

Technical Outlook

The positive vibe received by the Pound yesterday, may extend into the resistance located at 1.2770 but we don’t expect to see further upside because if the level is broken, the pair will encounter the 50 period EMA, which will offer another form of resistance. To the downside, 1.2635 remains a strong support but today both currencies in the pair will be affected by important releases, so the technical aspect is secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The Average Earnings Index is today’s highlight for the Pound. The indicator is scheduled for release at 8:30 am GMT and shows changes in the price that businesses and Government pay for labor. Usually a higher pay means that people will spend more in the near future and this strengthens the Pound; today’s forecast is a change of 2.4%, same as previous.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR ERASES LOSSES. SUPPORT TARGETED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair climbed before the Federal Funds Rate release, on the back of disappointing values for the U.S. CPI and Retail Sales. However, the Fed increased the rate to <1.25% as expected and Fed Chair Yellen was mostly hawkish during her Press Conference, so the US Dollar erased most of the previous losses.

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.1280 was breached yesterday but the bulls couldn’t break the barrier at 1.1300 and a hawkish Yellen press conference fuelled the greenback, erasing almost all losses. Strictly from a technical point of view, the pair is showing clear rejection at 1.1280 resistance and this makes the short term bias bearish. If the pair remains below 1.1240 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we expect a break of 1.1170.

Fundamental Outlook

The pair will not be affected by major economic indicator releases today, so the main focus will be on the technical aspect. The impact of yesterday’s events will likely extend to today’s trading session.


GBP/USD

Both the Pound and US Dollar were affected by disappointing data during the first part of yesterday’s trading session and this created a lot of back and forth action. Later in the day, Fed Chair Yellen’s speech was the catalyst for a move lower.

Technical Outlook

After breaking 1.2770 resistance and breaching the 50 period EMA, the pair reversed and is now trading below resistance once again. The pair remains volatile and without a clear direction but we believe that the hawkish stance adopted by Fed’s Yellen will generate additional downwards pressure. As long as the pair is trading below the Moving Average and below 1.2770 resistance, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales are released at 8:30 am GMT, showing changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets. Usually this indicator has a high impact, and numbers above forecast, which for today is -0.9%, strengthen the Pound.

At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate (no change expected from the current 0.25%), along with the Monetary Policy Summary, which contains insights into the reasons that determined the rate votes. Volatility is likely to surge, especially if there’s a notable change of stance in the MPC members’ votes.